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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Sep 04, 2026 (Fri)

TradeWinds held a Shipowners Forum at the SMM2026 venue

Gordon said the shipbuilding market is at its strongest level since 2008
　【Hamburg = Hisashi Kanto】British newspaper TradeWinds held a Shipowners Forum at the venue of the I ・・・ %E3%80%80%E3%80%90Hamburg+%3D+Hisashi+Kanto%E3%80%91British+newspaper+TradeWinds+held+a+Shipowners+Forum+at+the+venue+of+the+International+Shipping+Exhibition+%E2%80%9CSMM2026%2C%E2%80%9C+which+opened+in+Hamburg%2C+Germany%2C+on+September+1.+A+representative+of+UK-based+Clarksons+Research+said+in+a+keynote+speech+that+global+newbuilding+output+is+expected+to+reach+a+record+high+in+2027.+Newbuilding+orders+remained+at+a+high+level%2C+and+the+order+backlog+increased+by+more+than+30%25+from+the+previous+SMM%2C+held+in+September+2024.+China+is+leading+the+expansion+of+shipbuilding+capacity+and+accounts+for+more+than+70%25+of+newbuilding+orders+received+so+far+this+year%2C+the+representative+said.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Managing+Director+Stephen+Gordon%2C+who+delivered+the+keynote+speech%2C+said+that+the+current+shipping+and+shipbuilding+markets+are+%E2%80%9Cat+their+strongest+level+since+2008.%E2%80%9C+The+%E2%80%9CClarkSea+Index%2C%E2%80%9C+calculated+by+Clarksons+and+indicating+average+earnings+for+major+vessel+types%2C+exceeded+%2440%2C000+per+day+in+August%2C+a+record+high+for+that+month.+He+said+that+shipping+companies%E2%80%99+cash+flows+were+also+extremely+strong.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+Clarksons%2C+the+global+newbuilding+order+backlog+exceeds+210+million+CGT+%28compensated+gross+tonnage%29%2C+reaching+%24666+billion+in+value.+Gordon+said+the+figure+was+the+highest+ever+in+value+terms.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Meanwhile%2C+the+order+backlog+currently+amounts+to+22%25+of+the+global+fleet%2C+well+below+the+peak+of+more+than+50%25+in+2008.+Gordon+pointed+out+that+it+is+important+to+compare+the+order+backlog+with+fleet+size.+He+explained+that+although+the+CGT-based+order+backlog+is+only+about+7%25+below+its+2008+peak%2C+the+current+order+backlog+accounts+for+a+smaller+share+of+the+fleet+than+it+did+then+because+the+fleet+size+has+expanded.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Global+newbuilding+completions+are+expected+to+reach+about+50+million+CGT+in+2026+and+set+a+new+record+in+2027.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80China+is+driving+the+expansion+of+shipbuilding+capacity.+There+are+also+moves+to+strengthen+shipbuilding+as+a+strategic+industry+in+the+United+States%2C+where+the+Trump+administration+is+calling+for+a+revival%2C+as+well+as+in+India+and+Vietnam.+However%2C+China+has+recently+expanded+its+capacity+significantly%2C+mainly+by+reopening+and+expanding+existing+facilities+rather+than+building+new+shipyards.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Over+the+past+one+to+two+years%2C+particularly+in+China%2C+a+growing+number+of+shipyards+have+moved+into+vessel+types+they+had+not+previously+built.+Gordon+said+that+there+are+cases+of+shipyards+building+container+ships+and+large+vessels+for+the+first+time%2C+and+that+the+mix+of+vessel+types+handled+by+shipyards+is+also+changing.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80He+explained+that+delivery+times+for+large+vessels+have+lengthened+to+around+three+and+a+half+to+four+years.+He+said+that+new+shipbuilding+prices+were+at+roughly+the+same+level+as+in+2008+in+nominal+terms%2C+but+were+about+30%25+lower+in+real+terms+after+accounting+for+inflation.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+the+shipping+market%2C+longer+shipping+routes+and+detours+due+to+geopolitical+turmoil+are+boosting+demand+for+shipping+capacity.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Global+seaborne+cargo+volumes+reach+about+13+billion+tons+annually%2C+accounting+for+about+88%25+of+world+trade+by+weight.+The+average+transport+distance+has+increased+by+about+10%25+since+2019.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80It+is+estimated+that+detours+via+the+Cape+of+Good+Hope+due+to+heightened+Red+Sea+risks+have+boosted+demand+for+container+ships+by+about+10%25.+Gordon+said+that+changes+in+crude+oil+destinations+and+shipping+routes+resulting+from+the+Russia-Ukraine+situation+have+also+lengthened+transport+distances+and+boosted+demand+for+shipping+capacity.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CThis+is+equivalent+to+three+to+four+years+of+growth+in+a+normal+market%2C%E2%80%9C+he+said%2C+expressing+the+view+that+route+changes+and+longer+transport+distances+caused+by+geopolitical+turmoil+are+significantly+boosting+demand+for+shipping.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80He+also+explained+that%2C+amid+disruptions+surrounding+the+Strait+of+Hormuz%2C+the+shipping+industry+is+flexibly+adjusting+transport+routes%2C+including+by+using+ship-to-ship+cargo+handling+%28STS%29+off+Oman.+%E2%80%9CShipping+has+demonstrated+very+high+resilience+to+disruption%2C%E2%80%9C+he+said.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Against+this+backdrop%2C+shipping+companies+are+also+highly+profitable.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Clarksons+projects+shipping+industry+cash+flow+to+exceed+%24300+billion+in+2026.+Charter+and+freight+rates+in+August+were+above+the+10-year+average+in+all+markets+except+the+short-term+LNG+%28liquefied+natural+gas%29+carrier+market.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CThe+shipping+industry+is+as+cash-rich+as+ever%2C+if+not+more+so%2C%E2%80%9C+Gordon+said.+He+explained+that+freight+and+charter+rates+are+similar+to+those+in+the+previous+cycle%2C+while+the+global+fleet+has+nearly+doubled%2C+but+investment+in+newbuilds+has+been+relatively+modest.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80There+is+also+persistent+demand+for+fleet+renewal.+The+average+age+of+the+global+fleet+is+about+13.5+years%2C+and+vessels+over+15+years+old+account+for+41%25+of+capacity.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80He+pointed+out+that+many+vessels+built+during+the+previous+shipbuilding+boom+are+non-eco-friendly+ships+with+inferior+fuel+efficiency+and+emissions+performance.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Gordon+explained+that+if+market+conditions+soften%2C+the+scrapping+of+older+vessels+will+serve+as+a+supply-demand+%E2%80%9Csafety+valve.%E2%80%9C+He+expressed+the+view+that+%E2%80%9Cproblems+persisted+for+10+years+after+the+previous+cycle%2C+but+based+on+the+current+data%2C+that+will+not+happen+this+time.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80By+ship+type%2C+orderbooks+are+large+for+large+container+ships+and+LNG+carriers%2C+while+investment+is+relatively+low+in+bulk+carriers+and+ferries.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Market+priorities+regarding+decarbonization+have+shifted.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Of+newbuilding+orders+so+far+this+year%2C+vessels+capable+of+using+alternative+fuels+such+as+LNG+and+methanol+account+for+26%25+by+tonnage.+A+few+years+ago%2C+this+share+had+reached+about+50%25%2C+but+it+has+recently+declined.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Gordon+recalled+that+decarbonization+and+environmental+measures+were+the+top+priorities+four+years+ago%2C+but+said%2C+%E2%80%9CThe+top+priority+now+is+geopolitics.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+the+decline+in+the+proportion+of+vessels+capable+of+using+alternative+fuels+is+also+affected+by+changes+in+the+types+of+vessels+being+ordered.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80While+it+is+easier+to+opt+for+alternative-fuel+capability+for+container+ships+and+PCTCs%2C+it+is+difficult+to+decide+on+dual-fuel+capability+for+tankers+because+it+is+hard+to+foresee+where+they+will+operate+in+the+future.+He+also+mentioned+the+advantage+that+LNG+and+LPG+%28liquefied+petroleum+gas%29+carriers+can+use+their+cargo+as+fuel.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80He+characterized+energy-saving+technologies+as+relatively+easy-to-implement+and+highly+effective+measures+that+can+reduce+both+fuel+costs+and+emissions.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Gordon+emphasized%2C+%E2%80%9CGreen+is+not+the+top+priority+at+present.+However%2C+it+remains+a+long-term+trend.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81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